Bendigo Bank told brokers this week that another rate hike in 2026 is still on the table. CBA, reading the same set of economic data, pencilled in the first rate cuts for May or August 2027. Two lenders, same cash rate, opposite forecasts, and both had it published within days of each other. That split matters more than any single prediction, because it means nobody currently has a confident read on where borrowing costs go next.
Two Lenders Just Published Opposite Rate Forecasts
The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% at its June meeting, but the minutes released a fortnight later were read as hawkish by CBA and ANZ economists, who flagged that a further hike “does not appear imminent” but is not off the table either. NAB’s economics team reads the same minutes differently, arguing the cash rate has already peaked.
That disagreement widened this week. Bendigo Bank flagged one more 2026 hike as still possible, while CBA pencilled in the first rate cuts for May or August 2027 The Adviser. Westpac remains the lone Big Four outlier, forecasting two more 25 basis point hikes in August and September, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest level since the GFC Broker Daily. The RBA next meets on 11 August 2026.
It means certainty isn’t available from any single forecast right now. Borrowers weighing a fixed rate, a variable rate, or a split loan are working with genuinely mixed signals from the institutions best placed to know. Rather than betting on one outlook, it can be worth exploring how a loan structure performs across a range of scenarios with a broker or lender, rather than locking in around a single prediction.
Why 18 Lenders Cut Rates the Same Week the RBA Held Firm
While the big banks argued about the next move, smaller lenders got on with cutting. Eighteen lenders reduced variable home loan rates and five cut fixed rates this week, despite the RBA holding at 4.35% in June. Bendigo Bank’s most notable move was trimming its slowest variable refinance rate by 15 basis points to 5.89% per annum, while AMP Bank slashed some fixed rates by up to 50 basis points News.com.au. Canstar now counts 15 lenders offering a rate below 5.9%.
A non-bank lender, Bluebay Home Loans, joined the move on 7 July, cutting its Flexi range by up to 0.20% across full doc and alt doc products, and launching a new serviceability calculator built around the negative gearing legislation that passed Parliament in June Bluebay Home Loans. It is a reminder of something worth repeating to any client fixated on what the RBA does next: a bank’s own funding costs, competitive pressure, and product strategy can move a rate just as much as the cash rate itself.
What Slower Wage Growth Could Mean for Borrowing Power
Wage growth held at 3.1% through June, while jobs growth slowed to just 17,000, below the level needed to keep pace with population growth. CBA’s economics team flagged that softer labour market data increases the chance lenders apply tighter serviceability assessments over the coming months Australian Broker.
Serviceability assessments already build in a buffer above the actual rate a borrower is offered, and lenders can adjust how conservatively they treat future income growth when the labour market softens. That doesn’t change what someone earns today, but it can change how much a lender is willing to lend against that income, particularly for borrowers close to their maximum capacity.
Housing Supply Keeps Falling Further Behind Target
Total dwelling commencements fell 11.2% in the March quarter to 48,012, and the Housing Industry Association says only 197,340 homes were started in the 12 months to March, well short of the 240,000 a year needed to meet the Housing Accord target. There are 243,864 dwellings currently under construction The Adviser.
A widening gap between new supply and the pace of household formation tends to support prices over the long run, even in a market where clearance rates and monthly price growth are currently soft. It’s a slower-moving story than a rate call, but it’s the backdrop every other headline this week is playing out against.
The SMSF Lending Countdown Continues Toward 10 August
The residential SMSF borrowing ban remains the deadline shaping lender behaviour right now. AFG launched new commercial and SMSF white label loans in partnership with Pepper Money this week, positioning ahead of the 10 August cutoff, with Pepper Money reporting around 60% year-on-year growth across its commercial and SMSF lending Broker Daily. Bluebay Home Loans also cut its residential SMSF variable rate to 6.99% per annum at 80% LVR and extended its interest-only waiver, though contracts still need to exchange by 10 August to qualify Bluebay Home Loans.
For trustees part-way through a purchase, the exchange deadline is now the detail that matters most, more than the headline rate. Every SMSF’s borrowing structure, trust deed, and fund balance is different, so anyone weighing timing on a fund-held property purchase is best placed discussing their specific position with their broker and accountant before the window closes.
Key Takeaways
- Bendigo Bank flagged one more 2026 rate hike as possible in the same week CBA pencilled in first rate cuts for 2027, underscoring how divided lender forecasts remain heading into the RBA’s 11 August meeting.
- 18 lenders cut variable rates and 5 cut fixed rates this week despite the RBA holding at 4.35%, with Bendigo’s refinance rate falling to 5.89% and AMP cutting some fixed rates by up to 50 basis points.
- Wage growth held at 3.1% while jobs growth slowed to 17,000, prompting CBA to flag a higher chance of tighter serviceability assessments across the market.
- Dwelling commencements fell 11.2% in the March quarter, leaving housing starts well short of the Housing Accord’s 240,000-a-year target.
- The residential SMSF borrowing ban’s 10 August deadline is now driving lender activity, with AFG, Pepper Money, and Bluebay Home Loans all moving to capture SMSF and commercial demand before the cutoff.